Bankrot Detroitu

01. 06. 2009 | 11:32
Přečteno 8845 krát
I začátkem letošního dubna jsem třeba v Investorském magazínu ČT konstatoval, že bankrot Chrysleru a General Motors je nejen pravděpodobnou, ale i zjevně upřednostňovanou cestou

... v tom, jak řešit jinak bezvýchodnou situaci, tedy zbavení se neúnosného břemena desítek miliard dolarů závazků, které tyto automobilky měly, hlavně pokud se týká penzijního a zdravotního pojištění svých bývalých zaměstnanců.


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A tak se cestou tzv. řízeného bankrotu vydal jak Chrysler, tak i několikanásobně větší General Motors, který i přes značný propad má stále objem tržeb přes 180 miliard dolarů při výrobě více než 8 milionů aut. Po zestátnění velkých a mnoha menších bank tak došlo i na klíčové průmyslové závody. Pro ty, kterým se nelíbí myšlenka nouzového řešení „zestátněním,“ se tyto kroky dají prezentovat pod snáze přijatelným názvem „předprivatizace“.

Základní fakta jsou všeobecně známá. Výměnou za 50 miliard dolarových injekcí stát v restrukturizovaném a zeštíhleném gigantu získá více než 70% podíl, držitelé dluhopisů pak cenu útěchy ve formě 10% podílu a zbytek odborové svazy za to, že dále omezí své nejrůznější nároky.

Dlouholetý proces značných provozních ztrát a zadlužování všech detroitských automobilek, tedy i Fordu, který byl patrný i na vývoji cen jejich akcií a poklesu bonity dluhopisů na neinvestiční kvalitu, poskytoval neradostný pohled. Bohužel, všeobecný ústup ze slávy amerických automobilek sahá minimálně do konce 70. let, kdy arabské naftové embargo a zvýšení cen nafty v USA předznamenaly začátek konce amerických „křižníků dálnic“, tedy klasického výrobního sortimentu Detroitu.

Podíl domácích automobilek na trhu po 30 let klesá a ve kvalitě designu, inženýringu, ergonomii, úsporností provozu, spolehlivostí, atd. oproti dovozu dlouhodobě ztrácejí, ikdyž ve vnitrozemí duch „Buy American“ ještě tu a tam přežívá, ale veřejná rozbíjení nenáviděného dovozu palicemi patří minulosti.

Desetiletí opakovaných nadějí spojených s novými modely, nákladnou reklamou, slevami na ceně a s výhodným financováním nákupu auta, nic z toho nedokázalo pokles zastavit. Loňské, ikdyž nakonec jen dočasné zdvojnásobení ceny benzinu, reflektující růst ceny nafty, spolu s finanční a úvěrovou krizí, vedlo ke 40% propadu prodeje jejich aut. Investoři, včetně penzijních fondů, ztratili na akciích a dluhopisech těchto automobilek nemalé peníze.

Nedomnívám se ale, že i po urychleném režimu bankrotu Detroit bude schopen kvalitou a spolehlivostí dovozu konkurovat, ikdyž se nakonec prodej aut v USA, vloni poprvé nižší než v ČLR, oživí. Akcie „nového GM“ budou moci pravděpodobně, spíše jen krátkodobě, představovat investiční potenciál.

***

Jako jistou aktualizaci, článek z Bloombergu, 8.7.2009.

Nemalá, spíše podstatná část dlouhodobých problémů Detroitu, tedy domácího amerického automobilového průmyslu byla do sebe zahleděná kultura zejména vrcholného manažmentu. Článek v Bloombergu má její změnu za nové vlastnické struktury coby hlavní téma. Ikdyž bych přál novému General Motors co největší úspěch, přerod ve změně myšlení, žízení, filozofii vývoje i kvality produkce nebude nijak lehká a špičkové výsledky nejsou zcela jisté. Přikladem budiž nejen heroické úsilí Mercedesu ve Chrysleru, které Němci nakonec, po ztrátách, vzdali. Nemalá část vrcholného manažmentu, většina středního manažmentu, inženýři, technici, dělníci, odborové svazy, to vše zůstane i po restrukturizaci americké a bude se ve strategických rozhodováních i posledních detailech tak či onak prosazovat.


GM Faces ‘Cultural Change’ as Tie-Ups Temper Control

By Jeff Green

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., poised to exit bankruptcy protection, will be forced to rely on partners in Germany, China, South Korea and Russia for about half of its sales.

Distancing GM from the central control championed by Alfred P. Sloan Jr. in the 1920s, Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson will have to tie GM’s future to alliances with companies such as SAIC Motor Corp., GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Co. and suitors for its European Opel unit led by Canada’s Magna International Inc.

Diplomacy, not dictates from headquarters, now becomes pivotal for the biggest U.S. automaker, said Nick Reilly, the Asia-Pacific operations chief who previously led the GM Daewoo alliance in South Korea.

“It is a cultural change, there’s no question about it,” Reilly said. “You have to approach the business in the way that you welcome a partnership. That’s a totally different mind-set, and not very comfortable to people used to having 100 percent control of everything.”

Henderson will have to navigate new challenges as GM shifts from being an automaker that builds most of its own vehicles. The old business model couldn’t prevent a June 1 bankruptcy filing and $88 billion in losses since 2004.

Alliances create the risk that a venture partner might opt to walk away, punching a hole in Detroit-based GM’s portfolio, said James Womack, chairman of the Lean Enterprise Institute, a management-education center in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

‘Weaker Position’

“GM is now in a weaker position, and that makes these relationships more problematic,” said Womack, who co-wrote “The Machine That Changed the World,” a book about Toyota Motor Corp.’s production system, and founded his organization to teach those methods.

With only a handful of owners after leaving bankruptcy instead of thousands of individual investors, GM itself will have to function more like an alliance. The U.S. will hold about 61 percent of the equity, Canadian governments will have 11.7 percent, a union retiree trust will have 17.5 percent and creditors will have the rest.

If GM doesn’t adapt, it’s doomed to keep failing, Womack said.

“Now that they aren’t all-powerful, they will need to proceed with some humility and added sophistication,” he said. “This figures very large in GM’s future, looms large as to whether they can put a configuration of assets and capabilities together that’s going to make this work.”

New Era

First-quarter sales offered a glimpse of GM’s new era. About 25 percent of sales were in Europe, chiefly from Opel. Combined with Asia, which had 27 percent, 52 percent of GM’s deliveries were in regions that are or will be dominated by alliances.

GM proposes to keep a 35 percent stake in Russelsheim, Germany-based Opel. The automaker is shrinking in its home market, too, by shedding four of eight U.S. brands and shuttering factories. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Gerber in New York approved a plan on July 5 to sell most assets to a U.S. Treasury-funded buyer. A Chapter 11 exit may come this week.

“The days of being everything for everybody are over forever at GM,” said Michael Robinet, a forecaster at CSM Worldwide Inc. in Northville, Michigan. “The new model is one of cooperation.”

Dependence on partners means that GM managers will have to work harder in areas such as technology sharing, Robinet said. Executives will have to ensure that they reap maximum savings from using the same designs worldwide, and to know when it’s time to end one venture and forge a new one, he said.

Shifting Alliances

“This crisis has really shown that automakers can’t be static in the future,” Robinet said. “The industry is going to be a group of mutual joint ventures and alliances that will change over time.”

GM’s restructuring is unwinding the centralized management enshrined by Sloan, who was CEO from 1923 to 1946. His approach held sway until the automaker began building cars in China in 1997 under a half-owned joint venture with SAIC.

“That was eye-opening for many people back in the U.S.,” said Joe Fleck, chief financial officer for Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, who was CFO of the North American car unit at the time. “It was a new direction.”

More recently, GM has emphasized alliances in areas such as purchasing and product development, and took a 50.9 percent stake in the GM Daewoo joint venture in 2005. The other owners are China’s SAIC, Japan’s Suzuki Motor Corp. and Korean investors. GM also has alliances to build vehicles in Russia and Uzbekistan.

Extending GM’s Reach

Those moves extended GM’s reach as non-U.S. sales topped the domestic total for the first time in 2005 and reached 64 percent last year. That share rose to 74 percent as first- quarter U.S. deliveries slumped before GM’s bankruptcy filing, company data show.

Reilly said senior management sought his input on alliances to prepare for transforming Opel into a joint venture.

GM is also considering bids for Opel by Belgian private- equity firm RHJ International SA and Chinese automaker Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. as a fallback to the sale to Aurora, Ontario-based Magna. GM would still be a minority holder under those plans, people familiar with the discussions said.

Magna’s Mid-July Goal

Magna, which is bidding for Opel in partnership with Moscow-based OAO Sberbank, aims to complete a purchase agreement by mid-July. German Deputy Economy Minister Jochen Homann said in a phone interview late yesterday that GM needs more time to decide on financial terms with Opel’s suitors and that any agreement with Magna in the coming week will probably be limited to a business plan.

The Canadian company has a “big edge” because its talks on Opel began earlier, while Beijing Automotive’s offer contains “interesting elements,” Homann said following a meeting with the U.S. carmaker’s executives to discuss bids for Opel. “I wouldn’t want to predict how this will end” in terms of GM choosing a buyer. Germany’s government is offering to provide loan guarantees for Opel’s sale.

‘Leaner and Meaner’

The “leaner and meaner” GM management predicted this week by Steven Rattner, the Treasury’s chief auto adviser, is already taking shape.

Henderson is cutting 6,150 U.S. salaried jobs this year and thinning the top executive ranks by 35 percent to about 845 people. GM had 2,000 such jobs as recently as 2004, its last profitable year.

“It would be natural as part of this overall downsizing of GM for there to be a change in the management structure to become a bit closer to the ground,” Rattner said on a July 6 conference call in Washington.

Being smaller doesn’t make GM’s obstacles any easier to overcome, said Womack, of the Lean Enterprise Institute.

“You have to have a pretty sophisticated management to make this work,” he said.


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Joska napsal(a):

Souhlasím.

Já říkám, že americké automobilky budou zdravější, až ze silnic zmizá krabice předpotopních žlutých školních autobusů ve stylu SSSR 30. let a auta ne nepodobná Moskvičům, Volhám a ZILům.
01. 06. 2009 | 11:50

HG napsal(a):

Pád dolaru, posilování Kč je dlouhodobě nevyhnutelný trend.
01. 06. 2009 | 12:03

Neopřemyslovec napsal(a):

Kde jste byl Robert Miller, když se profláklo ČKD? Tenkrát jste měl žvanit!
01. 06. 2009 | 12:17

MK napsal(a):

Mate stesti pane Millere, ze jste o tom bankrotu mluvil az v dubnu. Kdyby to bylo loni na podzim, Nancy by Vas nejspis obvinila z nepratelstvi k americkemu lidu
01. 06. 2009 | 12:43

Xavier napsal(a):

Čekal jsem, že rozvinete úvahu na téma "jak velké americké firmy nahrazovaly státní sociální síť a doplatily na to", ale vy nic. znárodnění je tedy alespoň malá, ikdyž pochybná satisfakce, která se ovšem akcionářům vůbec nevyplatila. Velká trojka nemohla zvítězit v souboji o zákazníka s násobky nákladů na jednoho pracovníka v porovnání s asijskými továrnami na Jihu. To je prostě nerovná soutěž. Budoucnost pracovních podmínek v Americe půjde nejspíš směrem k omezování zaměstnaneckých výhod a oslabování odborů. Američané budou odkázání na péči všech možných fondů (zdravotních pojišťoven a důchodových pojištění) ještě více, než doposud. Po zkušenostech s fondy z minulého roku to není zrovna růžový výhled.
01. 06. 2009 | 17:18

Robert Miller napsal(a):

Xavier

Sociální požitky v detroitských automobilkách, ne tak už v automobilkách na americkém Jihu, kde před 20 lety GM postavily divizi Saturn a kde mají své závody japonské automobilky, jsou v Americe po mnoho let výjimkou, pokud se platů a sociálních požitků týká.

Před nějakými 20-30 lety podobně dobře na tom byli pracovníci oceláren, ale ti uzavíráním provozů, dovozem oceli z ciziny de facto zmizely.

UAW, United Auto Workers, kdysi velice mocný odborový svaz, také tradičně, jako třeba Teamsters, svaz řidičů dálkové dopravy, provázaný v té které míře s mafií, se kterou FBI, JFK a jeho bratry Bobby jako ministr spravedlnosti bojovali, před desítkami let, v poválečném boomu americké ekonomiky, tedy i automobilového průmyslu byly schopné vybojovat, také za ceny častých a dlouhých stávek, výhodné kolektivní smlouvy.

Tak, jak americká ekonomika postupně ochabovala, zejména po šoku arabského naftového embarga, slábla role odborových svazů v automobilkách. Tuším, že opravdová stávka v Detroitu nebyla možná 15 let a za posledních 25 let, od Reagana, který také musel nemalými státními zásahy velice neliberálně Detroit (a Harley Davison, který už nevyráběl) zachraňovat, jich bylo velice málo.
Ano, odbory chránění dělníci GM, Chrysleru a Fordu mají přibližně dvojnásobné platy než dělníci v jiných automobilkách, mají, hlavně penzisté, díky zákonným závazkům minulých desetiletí, nějaké nebo mnohem lepší penze a zdravotní pojištění nad standard Medicare.
Problémy Detroitu jsou ale mnohem zásadnější a dlouhodobé, nemálo jich souvisí s tím, jak dobité a problémové je samotné město, jeho po desetiletí zkorumpovaná správa, kriminalita, která je velice často nejhorší mezi americkými velkoměsty.
Již zmíněná (ne)kvalita designu, inženýringu, průmyslového !ne)designu, nerespektování ergonomie, nekvalifikovaná pracovní síla bez vyučení v evropském smyslu slova, arogantní manažment, antagonismus mezi manažery a dělníky, nedocenění inženýrského talentu, manažerské tlaky na produkci stále nových modelů, když třeba VW vyrábí a vylepšuje Golf po desetiletí. Hodnocení kvality amerických aut v porovnání s japonským dovozem po desetiletí nedopadá pro Detroit příznivě, a proto ztrácí podíl na trhu, ikdyž je jinak americký zákazník, hlavně na venkově a ve vnitrozemí ne moc náročný, neposuzuje auto z hlediska designu, úspory provozu atd. jako třeba Evropané.
Problémů s americkými automobilkami dlouhá řada a tak, jako Anglie není schopna vyrábět auta v potřebné kvalitě a objemech (zatímco lépe placení dělníci a inženýři v Německu ano), jako Američanům a Britům více hoví finanční než automobilové inženýrství, raději si hrají s „kreativním“ financováním aut, po léta už na 5 let, tak naděje na to, že americké automobilky budou schopné konkurence na globálním nebo h´jen domácím trhy se mi zdá být jen hypotetická a nereálná.
Je jasné, že někteří budou kolaps Detroitu svádět na „socialismus“ požadavků a závazků vůči zaměstnancům, ale to je jen část problému, skutečné problémy jsou hlubší, vlastně kulturní. Ostatně to byla odpověď jednoho bosse USA právě za Reagana, kdy Detroit byl v krizi, a USA byly zaplavovány malými auty z Japonska. Reagan je donutil k „dobrovolným“ kvótám, snížení dovozu, aby Detroit měl čas se nadýchnout, také začít menší auta vyrábět. Na dotaz, proč dělník v Detroitu vyrobí 2-krát méně aut než v Japonsku neměl odpověď, až v zoufalosti řekl „Its cultural!“.
Mimochodem, malé japonské vozy dále vytlačily americké, navíc Japonci vyvinuli střední a drahé vozy (Acura, Lexus), které drtí Cadillacy, Buicky, Chryslery i BMW a Mercedesy). Článek, který jsem napsal (pro E15?) se zabývá Reaganovým šrotovným a těmito zásahy, stejně jako jeho velkými celními tarify na japonské motocykly, které umožnily, že Harley davison povstal z mrtvých.
02. 06. 2009 | 01:35

Robert Miller napsal(a):

S více odstavců, pro snadnější čtení:)

Xavier

Sociální požitky v detroitských automobilkách, ne tak už v automobilkách na americkém Jihu, kde před 20 lety GM postavily divizi Saturn a kde mají své závody japonské automobilky, jsou v Americe po mnoho let výjimkou, pokud se platů a sociálních požitků týká.

Před nějakými 20-30 lety podobně dobře na tom byli pracovníci oceláren, ale ti uzavíráním provozů, dovozem oceli z ciziny de facto zmizely.

UAW, United Auto Workers, kdysi velice mocný odborový svaz, také tradičně, jako třeba Teamsters, svaz řidičů dálkové dopravy, provázaný v té které míře s mafií, se kterou FBI, JFK a jeho bratry Bobby jako ministr spravedlnosti bojovali, před desítkami let, v poválečném boomu americké ekonomiky, tedy i automobilového průmyslu byly schopné vybojovat, také za ceny častých a dlouhých stávek, výhodné kolektivní smlouvy.

Tak, jak americká ekonomika postupně ochabovala, zejména po šoku arabského naftového embarga, slábla role odborových svazů v automobilkách. Tuším, že opravdová stávka v Detroitu nebyla možná 15 let a za posledních 25 let, od Reagana, který také musel nemalými státními zásahy velice neliberálně Detroit (a Harley Davison, který už nevyráběl) zachraňovat, jich bylo velice málo.

Ano, odbory chránění dělníci GM, Chrysleru a Fordu mají přibližně dvojnásobné platy než dělníci v jiných automobilkách, mají, hlavně penzisté, díky zákonným závazkům minulých desetiletí, nějaké nebo mnohem lepší penze a zdravotní pojištění nad standard Medicare.

Problémy Detroitu jsou ale mnohem zásadnější a dlouhodobé, nemálo jich souvisí s tím, jak dobité a problémové je samotné město, jeho po desetiletí zkorumpovaná správa, kriminalita, která je velice často nejhorší mezi americkými velkoměsty.

Již zmíněná (ne)kvalita designu, inženýringu, průmyslového !ne)designu, nerespektování ergonomie, nekvalifikovaná pracovní síla bez vyučení v evropském smyslu slova, arogantní manažment, antagonismus mezi manažery a dělníky, nedocenění inženýrského talentu, manažerské tlaky na produkci stále nových modelů, když třeba VW vyrábí a vylepšuje Golf po desetiletí.

Hodnocení kvality amerických aut v porovnání s japonským dovozem po desetiletí nedopadá pro Detroit příznivě, a proto ztrácí podíl na trhu, ikdyž je jinak americký zákazník, hlavně na venkově a ve vnitrozemí ne moc náročný, neposuzuje auto z hlediska designu, úspory provozu atd. jako třeba Evropané.

Problémů s americkými automobilkami dlouhá řada a tak, jako Anglie není schopna vyrábět auta v potřebné kvalitě a objemech (zatímco lépe placení dělníci a inženýři v Německu ano), jako Američanům a Britům více hoví finanční než automobilové inženýrství, raději si hrají s „kreativním“ financováním aut, po léta už na 5 let, tak naděje na to, že americké automobilky budou schopné konkurence na globálním nebo jen domácím trhy se mi zdá být jen hypotetická a nereálná.
Je jasné, že někteří budou kolaps Detroitu svádět na „socialismus“ požadavků a závazků vůči zaměstnancům, ale to je jen část problému, skutečné problémy jsou hlubší, vlastně kulturní.

Ostatně to byla odpověď jednoho bosse USA právě za Reagana, kdy Detroit byl v krizi, a USA byly zaplavovány malými auty z Japonska. Reagan je donutil k „dobrovolným“ kvótám, snížení dovozu, aby Detroit měl čas se nadýchnout, také začít menší auta vyrábět. Na dotaz, proč dělník v Detroitu vyrobí 2-krát méně aut než v Japonsku neměl odpověď, až v zoufalosti řekl „Its cultural!“.

Mimochodem, malé japonské vozy dále vytlačily americké, navíc Japonci vyvinuli střední a drahé vozy (Acura, Lexus), které drtí Cadillacy, Buicky, Chryslery i BMW a Mercedesy).

Článek, který jsem napsal (pro E15?) se zabývá Reaganovým šrotovným a těmito zásahy, stejně jako jeho velkými celními tarify na japonské motocykly, které umožnily, že Harley Davison povstal z mrtvých.
02. 06. 2009 | 01:38

DB-Kalifornie napsal(a):

Nove americke automobilky vznikaji-ale zatim trochu v ustranni medialniho zajmu-v Silicon valley je nekolik firem, ktere vyvijeji auta na elektricke napajeni ci vodikovy pohon.
Bankrot Detroitu je symbolicky konec jedne nejen automobilove ery.
02. 06. 2009 | 08:04

jogín napsal(a):

Pěkná ukázka manipulování veřejnosti je test, který Aktuálně převzalo od MF Dnes. V testu "Vyznáte se v krizi" je možné si vybrat mezi Fedem a držiteli hypoték jako příčinou krize, ovšem nejvýjnamější důvod, obrovské hromadění dluhů bankami chybí. Jak snadné, vnutit lidem vhodné názory!
02. 06. 2009 | 09:27

RM napsal(a):

Pravicoví komentátoři se, přirozeně, i v krizi detroitských automobilek, soustřeďují na to, že se jejich dělníci mají, oproti jiným americkým dělníkům moc dobře.

Ale fakta jsou taková, že Detroit byl už v krizi od konce 70. ket, už tehdy ztrácel vůči japonské a zahraniční konkurenci. V posledních 5ti letech GM prodělal neuvěřitelných 88 miliard a poslední čtvrtletí přes 6 miliard a zajisté to nebylo na zvýšené sociální platby.

Manažment Detroitu je neschopný, jeho výrobky nekvalitní a u amerických zákazníků po 30 let ztrácejí svůj podíl. Smysl pro špičkový design, technologii, kvalitu řemesla nemá ani MBA manažment, ani nevyučení dělníci ve výrobě. Nemají to prostě v krvi, díky svému myšlení a prioritám, nejsou a v dostatečné míře nebudou schopni chápat, věnovat se, upřednostnit kvality, které jsou i pro amerického zákazníka, ikdyž je odříznutý od světa a třeba i bydlení stále preferuje pseudoklasický styl, nepreferované.

To, že po bankrotu budou nové platové stupnice, na rovině s platy v Japonci vlastněných automobilkách amerického Jihu, kde nejsou zaměstnanci odborově organizovaní, zajisté pomůže "bottom line", tedy výsledovce, ale ani podstatný, ani zásadní zvrat v trendu dlouhodobého ztrácení podílu na trhu to se vší pravděpodobností mít nebude a ani nemůže.

Tak, jako Británie neumí vyrábět sériová vozidla špičkové kvality tak to neumí, tváří tvář japonské konkurenci, Američané. Sázet na to, že, najednou nebo postupem let třeba GM bude profitabilní díky tomu, že bude získávat zpět podíl na trhu třeba elektrickými nebo hybridními auty, bych si skutečně, vědom si mnoha fundamentálních problémů, které nemají co do činění s cenou práce, netroufal.

Navíc, naftařské společnosti také nebudou nečinně přihlížet k tomu, kdyby se, což není pravděpodobné, významný podíl individuální automobilové dopravy v USA přesouval k hybridnímu nebo elektrickému pohonu.
02. 06. 2009 | 11:16

Xavier napsal(a):

pro RM:

Děkuji vám! Tento "kulturní" rozměr problému mi unikal. Docela jsem si lámal hlavu nad tím, jak je možné, že se Daimleru nepodařilo přivést Chrysler do zisku a vy jste mi poskytnul část odpovědi. Já bych vás na oplátku rád upozornil na skutečnost, že design některých "evropských" modelů (jako je například VW New Beetle Made in Mexico) a mnohých "asijských" modelů pro americký trh, které byly a jsou úspěšné, byl vytvořen v kalifornských designerských centrech Američany a jako první tam své designerské studio převedlo právě GM. GM mělo také nejrozvinutější vývojový program automobilu na elektrický pohon (viz třeba koncept Autonomy), ale nešlo s ním na trh bez perspektivy návratnosti. Z podobných důvodů odložili výrobu hybridů a byli zaskočeni úspěšným ohlasem na Toyotu Prius. Na druhé straně se pouštěli do megalomanských SUV s rekordně vysokou spotřebou a předpokládali, že se trh pro tyto vozy otevře i mimo USA, což byl naprostý nesmysl. Mentalita Američanů je prostě jiná, nejprodávanějším vozem po celé minulé desetiletí je pickup Ford F150 - auto pro dva pasažéry s velkou korbou. Pro nás naprosto nepochopitelné! No asi s tou arogancí managementu budete mít pravdu - pýcha předchází pád a tento pád je hodně bolestný a hluboký. Přesto doufám, že po očištění od arogantních manažerů, zbavení se nesmyslných projektů a koupení silným vlastníkem (Toyota?) GM opět povstane - lepší a perspektivní.
02. 06. 2009 | 11:17

RM napsal(a):

Xavier: a DB.Kalifornia
Ano vývoj elektrického vozu, Volt atd., myslím, že to není nedostatek mediálního zájmu. Kdyby GM měl zájem, bylo by pro něj výhodné, zájem nebo minimálně plno reklamy, by si dávno koupil, včetně sportovních hvězd a kongresmanů, třeba z míst, kde by se tento chystal do výroby.

Mě myšlení a strategie vedení Detroitu po všech těch letech připadá 1) krátkodobé hledisko, nevěří a nejsou schopni, v daném systému a kulturním prostředí ani nemohou myslet na deset a víc let dopředu: investoři chtějí zisk teď, hlavní slovo ve firmách mají MBA, sales, smysl pro absolutně špičkovou kvalitu designu, inženýringu, řemesla prostě není a rozhodně jako rozhodující hlas nevítězí. To je dlouhodobě, chronický problém, společný jmenovatel.

Jak jsem psal dříve: Ten, kdo navrhne nový marketingový trik, slogan, financování, gimick do reklamy, tomu se naslouchá. Ten dostane bonus, povýšení, rohovou kancelář s koupelnou, VIP parkovací místo, pozvání na golf se šéfy.

O GM, Chrysleru, Fordu¨, tedy příčinách jejich dlouhodobého ústupu se slávy, tedy od té doby, kdy se, hlavně a především Japonci 20 let po válce dali dohromady a kromě elektroniky si vytipovali právě americký automobilový trh jako strategický cíl dlouhodobého odbytu, by se dalo napsat a také bylo napsáno mnoho. Svým způsobem, díky povaze auto průmyslu (kupuje se jednotlivá spotřeba, tradice, odříznutí od světa a miliardy ročně na reklamu a masáž směrem ke korábům dálnic, gigantickým SUV, monstr pickup truckům, síle atd.) automobilový průmysl, ikdyž značně ztratil, tak se relativně oproti jiným sektorům drží.

Podstatné pro konkurenci je na americkém trhu se nejen uchytit, ale hlavně udržet. Mnozí, včetně VW, Renaultu atd. se snažili, ale dosáhnout smysluplných objemů se podařilo málokomu, nejlépe právě Japoncům a v posledních 15 letech Hyundai. To po léta chránilo a chrání domácí produkci, kromě konzervativní populace.

Před 25 lety konečně skončilo lobbování Detroitu v Kongresu, že ne bezpečnostní pasy, ikdyž jejich užívání nebylo v některých státech povinné ještě před 15 lety.

Podobně Detroit masíroval Kongres a veřejnost s air bagy. Prý je také "trh, zákazníci nepožadují", že by zvýšily cenu auta atd.

O tom, jak byly nebo jsou propojeny zájmy automobilek a naftařských firem, tedy "neamerické" je mít úsporná auta, desetiletí reklamy téměř výlučně glorifikuje sílu, HP, robustnost, macho image, ne úspornost provozu, zejména když se, opouštěním zanedbaných měst, v rámci rychlého zisku, stavěly suburban (předměstská) obydlí a developmenty nakonec i desítky mil daleko a spotřeba benzinu (kdy také dieselové motory představovaly zanedbatelný podíl na trhu).

Když se i dnes, po těch všech desetiletích, od první velké krize Detroitu koncem 70. let, obrovských státních zásahů na jeho záchranu za Reagana, kdy šéfové Detroitu opakovaně slibují, že už budou vyrábět auta japonské nebo evropské kvality, jen málo z toho je pravda, jak nakonec hodnocení spotřebitelskými automobilovými časopisy obecně stále dokazuje tak, jak Američané stále více dávají přednost dovozu, produkty Detroitu jsou designem často bizardní, v detailech nepropracované, řemeslo nedokonalé, ergonomie ignorovaná, zato rychle produkují různé zvuky, pískání (které třeba u našeho Plymouth Voyageru vede mojí choť k tomu, že se stydí, když pískot řemenů, který se nedá nikdy odstranit, v garážích Yaleovy nemocnice "příšerně zní a dělá jí ostudu"), kvůli čemu tedy koupila auto nové. Nechci to zjednodušovat, ale podobnost s Moskviči, Volhami, ZILy ...

Ano, společný vývojový podnik Toyota-GM v Kalifornii. Pokrok není lehký. Mercedes s Chryslerem, detroitskou "kulturou", od bossů po manažery, inženýry, dělníky nehnul, se ztrátou odešel. Naopak Opel se víceméně, jako poválečná investice GM drží, protože přes americké bossy je manažment, inženýři, dělníci víceméně Němci, nebo jimi vedení Turci atd.

Po desetiletí se nabízela otázka, proč GM nedováží své Oply do USA: Myslím, že jen velice částečně pravdivá odpověď byla (a je) že "trh to nechce". Pravdou je, že Houston má rád spotřebu benzinu a Detroit vydělá víc na velkých monstrech.

pokračování
02. 06. 2009 | 23:04

RM napsal(a):

dokončení

Účelová argumentace, že za bankrot Detroitu mohou odbory a jejich nároky je jen z části, navíc té menší, pravda, ikdyž kombinace nevyučených dělníků, spolu na americké poměry, kde průměrná mzda - upravená podle inflace, která sama je navíc uměle pokřivena a snižována - od roku 1978, tedy po 30 let, nevzrostla a obecně, statisticky, dnešní mužové vydělávají poprvé v historii méně, než jejich otcové.

Podobně účelová je argumentace, že za finanční krizi, fiasko bubliny, mohou ti, co si vzali velkou hypotéku, nebo černoch, kterému jí nanutili Demokrati ve vládě. GM prodělal 88 miliard za 5 let, za kvartál 6 mld, ne hlavně proto, že rozmazluje zaměstnance. Kvalita produktu, manažmentu, dělníků prostě není na úrovni.
02. 06. 2009 | 23:05

DB-Kalifornie napsal(a):

dnesni clanek od D Brookse v NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2009...
02. 06. 2009 | 23:07

RM napsal(a):

ZDB-Kalifornie

Díky za odkaz na Davida Brookse, konzervativního komentátora NYT. Neměl to také, těch 8 let stále horších výsledků, katastrofy za prvního amerického prezidenta s ekonomickým VŠ vzděláním vůbec lehké. Zde jakoby "opisoval" z mých poznámek nebo četl moji mysl, kdy se, nejen jako kdysi uprchlík do USA, ale i s ohledem na českou scénu, dlužno držet zpátky, pokud se popisu nebo interpretace věcí v USA týká, zejména kdyby šlo o kritiku, zejména image popularizovanými českými "liberály".

Brooks tedy popisuje, jednu podstatnou charakteristiku za druhou, některé z dlouhého seznamu co bylo, je a obávám se i stále ještě bude (aby to znemožnilo kýžený obrat k lepšímu) jak v Detroitu, v americkém domácím auto průmyslu (a extrapolováno také v naději mít zdravý, vysokou přidanou hodnotou charakterizovaný výrobní sortiment špičkové úrovně, který by za cenu, umožňující kvalitu života americké střední třídě, byl tak kvalitní, ikdyž ne cenově laciný, že ho svět bude chtít, třeba jako německý export, kupovat).

Změnu USA na více proexportní, mnohem méně deficitní země nikdo, Obama, McCain nemůže přivést a nepřivede, neb jako Británie před nimi, USA měly konkurenční výhodu jinde (rezervní měna, budování impéria, finance, komunikace, atd.) ne inženýrství.

Obamovi, respektive mocenským a finančním elitám v USA, nezbývá nic jiného, v tváří tvář kalamitě ve všech směrech, se světem hrozícím opustit dolar jako rezervní měnu, udělat nějaký kompromis, Detroit nějak v jádru zachránit, jakkoliv naděje na KULTURNÍ a HODNOTOVÝ obrat, od vrcholného manažmentu, přes střední, až po kvalifikace inženýrů a dělníků je něco, na co bych dlouhodobé peníze nevsadil, ikdyž krátko a střednědobě příležitosti na akciích "nového GM" jistě budou.

Minimálním předpokladem nadějí by také bylo odstěhovat celý autoprůmysl z Detroitu a z "Rust Belt", států od Illinois po Pensylvánii, vedení firem svěřit Němcům a Japoncům, design a vývoj svěřit inženýrům a designérům z těchto zemí, eventuelně jinde ze západní Evropy. Proškolit a vyučit americké dělníky v řemeslech, nedovolovat americkým MBA aby zaujímali vyšší místa v hierarchii firmy, budovat úspěch všestrannou kvalitou výrobků, ne reklamními, marketingovými, finančními triky kamuflovat dlouhodobou ztrátu reputace a pozice na trhu. To se ale nestane, takže peníze "vdov a sirot", tedy dlouhodobé, které netřeba hlídat, bych klientům do toho dávat nedoporučoval.

článku D, Brookse, nejpodstatnější výrazy:

The Quagmire Ahead
By DAVID BROOKS
On (Jan. 21, 1988, GM Elmer Johnson): “We have vastly underestimated how deeply ingrained are the organizational and cultural rigidities that hamper our ability to execute.” Jiný: “It is apparent that unless G.M.’s culture is fundamentally changed, especially in North America, its true heart, G.M. will likely be back at the public trough again and again.” Restructuring won’t fix the company, financing schemes won’t fix the company. G.M.’s core problem is its corporate and workplace culture — the unquantifiable but essential attitudes, mind-sets and relationship patterns that are passed down, year after year. Over the last five decades, this company has progressively lost touch with car buyers, especially the educated car buyers who flock to European and Japanese brands. Over five decades, this company has tolerated labor practices that seem insane to outsiders. Over these decades, it has tolerated bureaucratic structures that repel top talent. It has evaded the relentless quality focus that has helped companies like Toyota prosper. heroic measures have been undertaken, but technocratic reforms from within have not changed the culture. The Obama plan won’t revolutionize G.M.’s corporate culture.

First, the Obama plan will reduce the influence of commercial outsiders. The best place for fresh thinking could come from outside private investors. But the Obama plan rides roughshod over the current private investors and so discourages future investors. G.M. is now a pariah on Wall Street. Say farewell to a potentially powerful source of external commercial pressure.

dokončení
03. 06. 2009 | 01:10

RM napsal(a):

dokončení

Jak jsem psal v minulé reakci, proč GM nedovážel Oply z Evropy: „Already, the company has successfully sought to restrict the import of cars that might compete with G.M. brands.

Oproti strašení Brookse, který musí toto, díky své roli a filozofii psát, si myslím, že GM (jako Chrysler) budou brzy reprivatizovány, už jenom proto, že soukromý sektor si na ně rád, zbavené obrovských dluhů a závazků rád vsadí, nemaje v USA moc jiných alternativ na podobné investice.

Když byli investoři ochotni za akcii GM platit v roce 2000 80 USD, loni v říjnu stále 41 USD (!!), ikdyž za posledních 5 let GM prodělala 88 mld, v USA a po světě běhá stále více nekrytých biliónů USD, že rády některé z nich na reprivatizaci firmy a na akciích pár let vydělají.

Ale dlouhodobý úspěch, životaschopnost GM, Chrysleru, Detroitu to je naděje, jako by ČR chtělo porážet bězce dlouhých tratí z Keně.
03. 06. 2009 | 01:12

RM napsal(a):

oprava:

viz graf ceny akcie GM na Yahoo

9bohužel odkaz na krásný graf s mnitelným časovým ůsekem od jednoho dne po 30 let má více než 90 znaků a nelze je zde zveřejnit)

Ikdyž cena v roce 2000 byla až 80 USD, zmíněných asi 41 USD nebylo v říjnu m.r. ale v říjmńu 2007. Loňský říjen max. bylo asi 12 USD, stále 16-tinásobech 75 centů, ceny v den vyhlášení bankrotu.

Každopádně, v USA a ve světě vydláýděném zelenými papírky investoři jich milerádi dost za akcii v novém GM dají.
03. 06. 2009 | 01:31

Danny napsal(a):

p. Miller

Díky. Zase kvalifikovaný a jak už napsal i Xavier to významné, "kulturní" hledisko zohledňující popis věcí.
04. 06. 2009 | 10:01

jex napsal(a):

Dovolil bych se zeptat: pri prohlizeni parametru americkych vozu mam dojem ze jsou pouzivany pomerne (na evropske a japonske pomery) zastarale koncepce v konstrukci (casto pohon zadnich naprav, tuhe napravy,..). Pritom znam jak jiz v padesatych letech americky auta meli samosvorny diferencialy, poloosy a mnoho jinych vymoznesti o ketrych si v Evrope mohly nechat jenom zdat). Je to jenom zdani nebo cim to je, takovy zpetny postup v konstrukci? Zadosti trhu, nebo z duvodu pravnich hrozeb lpeni na osvedcenych resenich? Ja si to opravdu neumil vysvetlit.
04. 06. 2009 | 21:59

omega watches napsal(a):

Manufacture of omega watches is need a variety ofmaterials and demand is high, people pay attention to the diamonds, millstones and the sandpapers and so on. http://www.omegawatchessale...
29. 06. 2009 | 10:13

Bloomberg napsal(a):

Bloomberg:

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. Vice Chairman Bob Lutz waived his plan to retire at age 77 to reprise his “ultimate car guy” role at the reincarnated automaker and return to his marketing roots.

“Marketing is my occupational specialty, it’s what I was trained in, it’s what I did the first 20 years of my career,” said Lutz, who has worked at all three U.S. automakers over the past four decades. “I was in product development almost illegally.”

The new GM yesterday emerged from bankruptcy protection after 39 days, focusing on four brands in a bid to return to profitability after $88 billion in losses since 2004.
11. 07. 2009 | 12:06

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TUTORIAL TIPS AND TRICKS napsal(a):

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07. 08. 2009 | 13:34

JK napsal(a):

Vice informaci a krasna interaktivni grafika o americkych "kriznicich ulic", aut s "ploutvemi", v clanku New York Times zde

http://www.nytimes.com/2009...
07. 08. 2009 | 21:22

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01. 11. 2012 | 21:41

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01. 11. 2012 | 22:18

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02. 11. 2012 | 00:07

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02. 11. 2012 | 10:43

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02. 11. 2012 | 10:57

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02. 11. 2012 | 10:58

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02. 11. 2012 | 11:15

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02. 11. 2012 | 11:26

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02. 11. 2012 | 11:55

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02. 11. 2012 | 13:00

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02. 11. 2012 | 13:32

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02. 11. 2012 | 13:32

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02. 11. 2012 | 13:35

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02. 11. 2012 | 13:57

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02. 11. 2012 | 14:06

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02. 11. 2012 | 14:11

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02. 11. 2012 | 18:28

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02. 11. 2012 | 18:45

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02. 11. 2012 | 18:52

Intackace napsal(a):

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02. 11. 2012 | 19:02

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02. 11. 2012 | 19:12

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02. 11. 2012 | 19:15

erulfutle napsal(a):

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02. 11. 2012 | 19:32

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02. 11. 2012 | 20:08

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02. 11. 2012 | 20:26

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02. 11. 2012 | 22:10

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05. 11. 2012 | 18:09

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20. 04. 2013 | 15:13

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22. 04. 2013 | 03:50

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22. 04. 2013 | 13:08

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reade more:
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http://www.sindojusmg.org.br/site_2010/wiki/index.php?title=Overwhelming_popularity_of_the_coach_purse
http://proj.daodin.net/mediawiki/index.php/%E9%A6%96%E9%A0%81
25. 04. 2013 | 22:01

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reade more:
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http://www.lutrim.com/w/Overwhelming_popularity_of_the_coach_bag
26. 04. 2013 | 00:45

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26. 04. 2013 | 03:42

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27. 04. 2013 | 04:19

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