If Andrej Babis and Martin Roman have done a deal, why then does Miroslav Kalousek, one of Roman’s oldest allies in politics, continue in his hysterical assaults on the finance minister?





This is the question that Erik Best posed in his Final Word column today. It is the right question the answer to which may be found on the billboards that line the ring road encircling Prague.

It is too easy to explain BigBoard’s Okradena Praha campaign as a reasonable attempt by a legitimate business to protect itself against the city council’s intention to ban in ten days time the erection of new billboards larger than 6m2.

True, such a ban will hit BigBoard much harder than any other market player. BigBoard controls almost half the large format billboard market in Prague, a business worth some $35-40 million US a year according to SPVR, the industry association running the campaign in BigBoard’s name. SPVR’s ruling body is controlled by BigBoard and the financial group J&T.

But it would be a mistake to interpret this as a straightforward business dispute, and this because of who controls BigBoard.

If the city simply wanted to improve the terms of its rental agreements with BigBoard (the billboard industry pays the city a tenth of what it makes, or some $4 million US a year, from renting the city land on which it erects its billboards), a settlement would have been reached long ago.

It is inconceivable that BigBoard would have embarked upon quite such an aggressive assault against a party led by its old friend, Miroslav Kalousek, and in the middle of a critical election campaign too, if this was merely a business dispute. BigBoard’s owners are accustomed to doing deals with greedy politicians.

Likewise, it is inconceivable that TOP 09’s Tomas Hudecek, the 35 year-old mayor of Prague (who comes from Olomouc and has no power base of his own), would have decided to take on BigBoard unless he had the full support of his party. And that means the full support of the party’s de facto leader, Miroslav Kalousek.

And it is inconceivable that Kalousek would support such a move against BigBoard –that is, unless he had fallen out with Martin Roman and his business associates in J&T, the real majority owner of BigBoard.

BigBoard’s 2013 annual report states that, to the company's best knowledge, BigBoard’s owners are JOJ Media House, a joint stock company owned by the Slovak lawyer, Richard Flimel, who works for J&T (60%); Richard Fuxa, the man who leads BigBoard and fronts-up the firm’s recent acquisition of several million dollars’ worth of modern Czech art (20%); and Touzimsky Media, a Swiss-owned joint stock company linked to Jan Veverka, a business associate of Martin Roman’s (20%).

So what is really going on? The answer is the compelling need of Andrej Babis and Martin Roman to do a deal with each other. Babis needs control of Prague and loathes Kalousek. ANO’s campaign is rapidly losing momentum under the hopelessly unappealing Adriana Krnacova. If ANO is to dislodge TOP 09 and take control of the city, it requires outside help, such as that now being supplied by BigBoard against Hudecek and his ‘thieves’ running city hall.

And what Roman needs is immunity from prosecution by Martin Bodlak and his colleagues in the Prague state prosecutor’s office. The reopening of investigations into CEZ deals must alarm Roman and his political patrons, Bohuslav Sobotka and Vaclav Klaus, both of whose influence is fading fast. What Roman needs now is the political protection of Babis and Milos Zeman.

Roman's trump card is of course his special relationship with Kalousek. BigBoard’s assault on TOP 09 is the most visible sign yet that Roman has decided, after a decade of mutual good service, to trade-in Kalousek for the ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card that Babis and Zeman each hold up their sleeves.

In short, Roman will help Babis win Prague and ruin Kalousek in return for guarantees that he Roman will not be prosecuted, and if successfully prosecuted, then amnestied. And of course for ANO’s support in overturning Hudecek’s ordinance outlawing the erection of new billboards.

And the more abandoned by his old friends Kalousek feels, the more hysterical he will become. Indeed, it might be that Hudecek's ordinance against BigBoard is actually Kalousek's attempt to persuade Roman et al not to trade him in in exchange for Babis's protection.