German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in Washington today to make the case against Senator John McCain and his Republicans who want to rearm Ukraine.


America's most famous cowboy John Wayne once said: "Don't pick a fight, but if you find yourself in one, I suggest you make damn sure you win." Sound advice for Senator McCain.

The German Chancellor hopes to persuade her US counterpart that rearming Ukraine would provoke Putin and prolong the conflict. McCain has dismissed Merkel's approach as 'foolishness'. "Asserting that there is no military solution should not lead us to believe that there is no military dimension to the problem or that hard power can play no role in a favourable solution," CNN quoted McCain as saying.

Chancellor Merkel put her case against 'hard power', in favour of a policy of containment and political and economic isolation, in Munich over the weekend:

“I am firmly convinced this conflict cannot be solved by military means. I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily. I have to put it bluntly. I grew up in East Germany, I have seen the Wall. The Americans did not intervene then, but in the end we won.”

The reasoning behind Merkel’s realism is explained by Ben Aris, the Moscow-based editor-in-chief of the news server BNE. Aris has been making the case against rearming Ukraine for months now, much to the irritation of 'New Cold War' warriors like Ed 'I told you so' Lucas of The Economist (see this excellent televised BNE debate that took place in London last week).

Here is Aris foretelling Merkel: “US military aid would allow the Ukrainian forces to better defend themselves, but not give them any decisive advantage to actually end the confrontation. And Russia would be bound to reply in kind. The prospects of an accidental slide into a full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine is getting closer all the time.” See here and this piece in Foreign Policy on US 'take it or leave it diplomacy here)

Godspeed to Angela Merkel in her mission today to persuade Washington against rearming Ukraine and God preserve us from the trigger happy John McCain's of this world.