Some arguments "for" and "against" supporting Hashim Thaci's unilaterial Kosovar declaration of independence. Yep, I'm in an Albanian sort of mood today...

Since I'm getting e-throttled by my usual group of antagonistic e-barbarians (maybe I should begin naming them here?), I'll cut right to the chase on this one, friends.

Since I'm a democrat, I think everyone deserves a fair shot, so some days will be posts for our regular constituency (read: longer, deeper, more detailed, challenging, for people with advanced degrees and an open mind), and some days won't be, like today (read: bullet-y, short, thin, appealing to the lowest common denominator, staple food for the neanderthals). So today, my sweet oooga booga clan, I write concisely just for you.

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Pro:

** the US is totally pro Kosovar independence. Since we move in lockstep with the Americans on everything, so must we. The Americans are our sole partner in the region, the bulwark and protection against a potentially resurgent former Soviet Union.

** we are the captains of the middle -- the bulge in the centre -- the soft underbelly. The beer gut, in other words. If we support the Kosovars now -- like we do the Belarussians and their nascent democracy movements -- then when the time comes for investment our Kosovar friends will have long memories and invite us to put our monies where our mouths are. They will give us preferential MFN status for their markets, where we can ply our Czech trades and and implement our unique technologies, which are known for the world over. I call this the selfish, greedy rationale.

** supporting Kosovar independence will maintain KFOR in the Balkan region -- to act as a rapid reaction force, if necessary, in case our former Soviet friends become a little fiesty and decide to tip the continental balance of the peace. In the event of a total Russian onslaught, we'll require those KFOR troops as cannon fodder to plug the rolling tide of Russian army (aka Red Army) tanks and materiel rolling across Eastern Europe's borders, like cotton swabbing that occasionally clogs our drains. We'll need to stop them somehow. That's what KFOR is for.

** If we oppose the EU's support of Kosovar independence, we'll look like sticks in the mud, standing apart from our European confreres. That's just not neighbourly now, is it? We are not powerful enough, independent enough, politically mature enough, democratically developed enough, and furthermore, what does the Czech Republic know about the Balkans? Where were we when Yugoslavia was disintegrating? Sitting on the fence, likely, too concerned with our own Czechoslovak breakup and getting over the divorce. It happens...

** supporting Kosovo allows to repent for our previous cold passivity and complete inactivity in the region, making amends for our past misdeeds.


Con:

** supporting Kosovo before the EU does breaks ranks with our continental peers and directs unwanted attention our way, negative PR that will highlight our weaknesses, indeed for the wrong reasons. Are we politically mature enough to handle this? Not llikely, given the last round of shenanigans we've just been through up on the Hill.

** by supporting Kosovo, we ensure the continued militarization of the Balkans, a potential instigation to our former overlords, the Russians. By refusing to march in lockstep with the EU, we curry favour with the former Soviets, a force to be reckoned with.

** Prague's streets will become more rambunctious and potentially violent, as the population of local expatriate Serbs residing here continues to protest more stridently, as they recently did at Palackeho nam in Prague. Since we eschew violence and are generally passive, this will call into question our ability to actually defend the city against such mob behaviour. We've historically not been good at protecting our own interests for several decades now. Genetically-speaking, this might be an inherited trait, though it's not certain. Experts still disagree on the matter.

** by supporting what is considered a separatist movement to our friends further east, our generosity vis-a-vis the Kosovars could harm our economic interests in places with budding separatist movements of their own -- Slovakia, Romania, etc.

** we aren't politically mature enough yet. By having our government focus all its attention on a foreign policy boondoggle like Kosovo, the Czech government yanks attention away from the more structural problems that plague our baby-like democratic system. We need to focus on our problems at home first before we can begin preaching the Western-inspired politcal praisethelord gospel to our neighbours.

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Thank you for your time today.

--ADM