The unwillingness of Andrej Babis to support Bohuslav Sobotka, even obliquely, is contributing to the chaos.

On Friday morning, I predicted that the election outcome would be a coalition government of ANO 2011, CSSD and KDU-CSL.

By yesterday morning, Monday 28th October, the man upon whose word we have all been waiting, Andrej Babis, revealed from his retreat on the Cote d'Azur that he is now willing to go into government, albeit reluctantly, with CSSD and KDU-CSL.

Only a true romantic would believe that a man who has spent 4 million euro of his own money on an election campaign is reluctant to assume power. When that same man wins the election, then the assumption of power is unavoidable.

Babis's pretence of not wanting power is a mixture of false modesty and manipulation. There was never any doubt that he would go into government after the results came in on Saturday afternoon. So why did he wait 24 hours before acknowledging this?

It appears that he was waiting for Milos Zeman to make his next move. Babis spoke out after Zeman launched his attack on Bohuslav Sobotka, who was defeated on Sunday night by his party rival, Michal Hasek, in a vote on which of them would lead the negotiations on the formation of a government. Hasek is Zeman's puppet.

What are we to deduce from this? One interpretation is that Babis, by refusing to state clearly on Saturday evening that he would go into government with Sobotka's CSSD, was giving Zeman the time to regain the initiative after the annihilation of his own absurd party and crony government.

In truth, SPOZ served its purpose. It contributed to CSSD's poor showing by driving hesitant social democratic voters away from the party which they felt had become too close to Zeman, and into the hands of Babis.

Whatever his motive for waiting before speaking out, the unwillingness of Babis to support Sobotka, even obliquely, has helped undermine Sobotka's position and is contributing to the present chaos.

So much for Sobotka. Whether he is stays or whether he goes, we now face the prospect of a much enfeebled CSSD under the destructive influence of its principal enfeebler - the president himself - forming a government with ANO 2011, an assortment of individuals wholly dependent upon Babis.



"We are not like them": ANO's Pavel Telicka jointly owns the lobbying firm, BXL Consulting, together with lobbyists Becker & Poliakoff. Both companies sit in the same building as Rittig & Partners. Here is a picture of the police raiding Ivo Rittig's office (not Telicka's!)

Some of these individuals are employed by him, such as Agrofert's Jaroslav Faltynek (who is vice-chairman of ANO 2011), while others, like the lobbyist Pavel Telicka, are presumably retained by him (actually, who does Telicka not work for?!)

This was the second outcome I suggested - a government overwhelmed by two individuals beyond the reach of any usual standard of party accountability.

I do not envy Pavel Belobradek of KDU-CSL. Never has such an inexperienced party leader found himself caught between such a rock and such a hard place.

As for Babis, his assessment of the present impasse as 'absurd' is not illuminating. Zeman's plans for CSSD were easy enough to foresee - unlike those of Andrej Babis.