Two decades after irreconcilable political differences between its constituent parts led to the break-up of Czechoslovakia, the high politics of the two states are almost identical.

Assume that President Zeman becomes the Czech prime minister in all but name in six weeks time, with CSSD, under an emasculated leadership, forming the next government in coalition with the Zemanites, and the Communists in the background.

And assume that Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose governing SMER holds an absolute majority in parliament, becomes the Slovak president in six months time.

These assumptions are reasonable ones to make today. The politics of both countries are shifting away from an adversarial parliamentary system in which parties compete for power, however inconsequential that competition is in practice, to a system in which a single politician has become the most important arbiter.

The cause of this shift is the failure of the political parties to convince people that the differences between them are meaningful -that the competition is real. This has led voters to place their hopes for better government in the hands of someone that stands above the parties, or in the case of Slovakia, overwhelmingly in the hands of one party leader.

And can you blame them, however misplaced their hopes turn out to be?

The politics of both the Czech Republic and Slovakia have become precariously unbalanced. In the Czech case, whereas until now we have had too much equilibrium, epitomised by the long and profitable relationship between Vaclav Klaus and Zeman, soon we shall have too little. Zeman is exacerbating this understandable shift away from parties, whose ideological interests were long ago sacrificed on the altar of their uncontrollable greed.

In Slovakia, the absolute parliamentary majority held by SMER has allowed it to ignore altogether the five other parties represented in parliament. In the Czech Republic, CSSD, KSCM and SPOZ together will likely win a comfortable parliamentary majority next month. And facing them will be at least another four parliamentary parties (TOP 09, ODS, ANO and KDU-CSL).

The dominance of Milos Zeman is resented by a large minority, concentrated in Prague. Likewise, the dominance of Robert Fico and SMER is resented by a relatively small minority, concentrated in Bratislava. Just how small a minority will become clear next spring, when Fico is likely to run for, and to win the presidency, even if Iveta Radicova, the only person with any chance of reducing the size of Fico’s majority, decides to run against him, which is not at all clear.

Today, both Czechs and Slovaks are facing the prospect of a presidential republic in which the directly elected head of state effectively controls the government, which in turns dominates a fragmented opposition in parliament.


All the president's men: President-in-waiting Robert Fico, flanked by Robert Kalinak and Pavol Paska, both hoping to serve their next head of state as prime minister.

There are factions fighting for influence around both leaders of course. The closer Fico comes to announcing his presidential candidacy, the greater are the tensions within SMER, between the interior minister, Robert Kalinak, and the speaker of the parliament, Pavol Paska, both of whom want to succeed Fico as party chairman and prime minister in the event that he becomes president. Kalinak is best known for his splendid mane; Paska for his arrogance. It was Paska who said he had not noticed anything significant happening on 17th November 1989, as he was too busy laying new tiles in his bathroom.

There are even rumblings of dissatisfaction in the Zeman camp. The unwillingness of Miroslav Slouf to be written out of the party history by Zeman’s new favourites suggests that not all Inner Party members are entirely happy with the growing influence of SPOZ vice chairman and businessman, Martin Nejedly.


Good night and good luck! Zeman embracing Inner Party members Mynar and Nejedly.

But the significance of this in-fighting among their underlings should not be exaggerated. It is certainly no substitute for parliamentary democracy. None of these minions would dare commit the crime of even thinking that he could unseat the leader.

By 17th November 2014, 25 years after Pavol Paska was happy laying his bathroom tiles (he has built a lovely new house in the meantime -see here) and ranking KSC member Miroslav Slouf was in a cold sweat, the politics of former Czechoslovakia will be dominated by two men, and both will be president.

If you want a vision of the near future, to misquote George Orwell, imagine President Milos Zeman planting kisses on the cheeks of President Robert Fico –for ten years.